Day 9 of the Great Storm Chase!

This blog will probably take me a wee bit to type...my finger is pretty bruised and swollen so I'm icing it and typing with the other hand. I'm hoping that it's not actually broken which is kind of a possibility considering everytime I pulled my finger to get it to unjam it cracked just a little and didn't do anything. I can't straighten it even forcefully and can't bend it completely either...any suggestions?

Today was a pretty boring day since it was a travel day to set up for tomorrow. However, if it pays off by allowing us to be in good postition for good storms tomorrow then it's most def worth it! Yesterday, we were thinking that today would possibly be a chase day but we knew that there wasn't a great possibility for that. After looking at the SPC's predictions and making our own based on maps, models, and soundings last night and this morning we realized that there was nothing worth our time. The cold front stalled yesterday that we were relying on to get our storms forming for yesterday so we still didn't have that on our side for today. Also, the moisture still wasn't there to create the energy needed.

We did get a lot of rest today though since we met at 9:15 CDT and didn't leave our hotel until about 11:15 CDT. The drive wasn't bad either since it was only about 6 or so hours after breaks and everything. It was another constant sleeping van ride so I think we're finally all rested somewhat well. We got to our hotel in Sioux City, IA at about 6:00 CDT so we did some laundry and then we went to a grocery store to get some dinner.

It was a huge blow to each of us to hear about the supercells that formed in Indiana and southern Ohio that produced 3 tornadoes collectively. I first heard about the severe weather from my brother Alex who wanted to rub it in my face...of course! A lot of the others were getting calls and texts from people who were in Indiana and decided to chase the storms but we were all so tired of hearing about it and it actually discouraged us even more...at least me anyways. So, for that reason I don't care that those cells popped up in Indiana and I don't care that I missed out on that tornado...it all happened in the dark anyways which made it too dangerous and less likely to even see it. It was somewhat of a good learning tool though because we were able to look at the live radar and forecast the best spot for the tornado to appear. Our professor used the opportunity to reiterate some of his main points about supercell formation and spotting them on the radar.

That's about all we did for today and we're really putting all of our marbles into tomorrow's possibilities. Right now we're making our decisions based on the SPC's convective outlook that is showing that there is a 30% chance for severe thunderstorms in southeastern North Dakota and Minnesota area. Around that are some wider areas of hail and wind chances. The SPC is also calling for CAPE values from 1500 to about 2500 which is decent for where we need those to be to develop some severe storms. They also call for some moderate vertical shear so there is a decent chance that some supercells can pop up with a result of some tornadic activity. Personally, I think that our best chances will be in the southeastern portion of South Dakota. Here, it looks like there will be the best wind shear to allow for decent amounts of updrafts and downdrafts without them cancelling each other out. Also, there seems to be some good dew points in that area to create enough moisture to create the convection we need and the CAPES look decent in this area as well. Basically, looking at all of our models and maps for the Minnesota, South Dakota area I think that everything seems to be matching up nicely right on the east-southeast border of South Dakota and Minnesota on the South Dakota side. We have great dew points, temps, not much cloud cover, CAPES, helicity, low LCL's, and decent shear. Also, the jet sream is expected to be covering right over South Dakota and Minnesota which will also help out a lot. Of course, I'm still early in my forecasting career, considering I've learned most of all of it since being in this class, but I think that these forecasted models show good potential for this area in the convective outlook. I guess we'll see!

Well, hope for the best tomorrow!

Good night!